UK CPI inflation forecast 2025

Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. The UK’s high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Many of the workers who took part in strikes were part of the UK’s public sector, which saw far weaker wage growth than that of the private sector throughout 2022. Widespread industrial action continued into 2023, with approximately 303,000 workers involved in industrial disputes in March 2023. There was far less industrial action by 2024, however, due to settlements in many of the disputes, although some are ongoing as of 2025.

The nearby island polities of the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey are crown dependencies, in union with the British monarch, but do not strictly form part of the United Kingdom or any of its three jurisdictions or four countries, although the British government retains responsibility for their external affairs. The Isle of Man lies roughly midway between Great Britain and the island of Ireland in the Irish Sea, while the Channel Islands lie just off the northern French coast. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.

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The capital is London, which is among the world’s leading commercial, financial, and cultural centres. Other major cities include Birmingham, Liverpool, and Manchester in England, Belfast and Londonderry in Northern Ireland, Edinburgh and Glasgow in Scotland, and Swansea and Cardiff in Wales. The UK became the first industrialised country and was the world’s foremost power for the majority of the 19th and early 20th centuries, particularly during the Pax Britannica between 1815 and 1914.

England’s highest mountain is Scafell Pike, at 978 metres (3,209 ft) in the Lake District; its largest island is the Isle of Wight. The UK inflation rate was 3.6 percent in October 2025, down from 3.8 percent in the previous two months, which was the fastest rate of inflation since January 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years.

• Since 2015, the highest average daily temperature in the UK was registered in July 2018, at 18.7 degrees Celsius.
• In the three months to September 2025, average weekly earnings in the United Kingdom grew by 4.6 percent.
• The Isle of Man lies roughly midway between Great Britain and the island of Ireland in the Irish Sea, while the Channel Islands lie just off the northern French coast.
• The UK has a highly developed social market economy.262263 With an estimated nominal GDP of £2.765 trillion in 2024,264 it is the sixth-largest national economy in the world and the second-largest in Europe.
• One of the main consequences of high inflation and low wage growth throughout 2022 and 2023 was an increase in industrial action in the UK.

This diversity stems largely from the nature and disposition of the underlying rocks, which are westward extensions of European structures, with the shallow waters of the Strait of Dover and the North Sea concealing former land links. Britain’s public finances, like those of other nations, have been squeezed in recent years by the costs of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The United Kingdom bears the extra burden of Brexit, which has knocked billions off the economy since the country left the European Union in 2020. Unfortunately for Reeves, the UK economy, the world’s sixth-largest, isn’t doing as well as she hoped, with many critics blaming her decision last year to slap taxes on business. Though there were signs the economy was improving in the first half of the year, when it was the fastest-growing among the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, it has faltered again. The Met Office has issued a yellow «be aware» warning for western and northern Scotland.

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